The Europe-bound tanker Sea Horizon, laden with a 38,000-metric-ton cargo of diesel, diverted to Venezuela over the weekend, amid falling prices in the Mediterranean and northwest Europe for the middle distillate.

The tanker, which loaded at the Magellan Galena Park Terminal on June 28, first signaled it would be heading for Gibraltar, arriving in mid-July. The grade of diesel isn't known, nor the charterer.

Over the weekend, the vessel turned around mid-Atlantic, and is now signalling that it will arrive at Amuay Bay, Venezuela, within the next two days, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

Diesel cargo prices in the Mediterranean and northwest Europe have already dropped 5% this month, OPIS calculations show. Prices ended the week at $413.75 per ton and $416.75 per ton, respectively.

Several Europe-bound diesel cargoes diverted to West Africa last week, including the Glencore-controlled Torm Louise, which arrived at the Togolese port of Lome on July 8.

Some eight cargoes of diesel totaling around 295,000 tons were loaded from the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coast and are currently on the water and scheduled to arrive at a Mediterranean port between now and Aug. 4, according to data compiled from brokers, traders and vessel-tracking data. A further six ships each laden with about 38,000 tons are heading for northwest Europe.

Diesel exports to Europe from the U.S. averaged just over 1 million metric tons a month in 2015 according to figures from Eurostat, the European Commission's statistics database.

A Long Range 2 tanker has been reportedly chartered to load a Europe-bound cargo of jet fuel from China, a rare supplier of the middle distillate west of the Suez Canal.

The Abliani was chartered by CSSSA, the shipping arm of French oil company Total, according to information supplied by shipbrokers. The 90,000-ton cargo is said to be clean petroleum product, but is assumed to be jet fuel, which Total regularly ship to Europe from the Middle East Gulf and occasionally from the Far East.

The vessel is due to load from Tianjin on July 17, based on shipbroker reports, and is currently heading north in the South China Sea after last calling at South Korea, satellite-tracking data shows. If the ship charter goes as planned, the vessel would make a month-long voyage that would see it arrive by mid-to- late August.

One of the few cargoes seen shipping jet fuel to Europe from China was last tracked in November 2015, when Noble had 65,000 tons of jet fuel on the Chrisopigi Lady, which discharge in the U.K., according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

So far around 90,000 metric tons of jet fuel from China, equivalent to one Long Range 2 tanker, has been imported by the 28 member countries in the first five months of this year, the latest European Commission trade data shows.

Some 320,000 tons was shipped for all of 2015, which equates to about three tankers, Eurostat figures show. Overall imports of jet fuel into Europe in 2015 totaled nearly 22 million tons, with more than two-thirds sourced from the Middle East Gulf.

Premiums paid for diesel delivered to Mediterranean ports rebounded strongly this week to raise prices from two-month lows, amid an immediate shortfall of cargoes arriving this month from swing suppliers Saudi Arabia and India.

The price for ultra-low sulfur diesel Mediterranean cargoes was today assessed at a $1.50 premium to the August low-sulfur gasoil future, giving a price of $425.50 per ton. That's in sharp contrast to diesel cargo prices in northwest Europe, which fell to a discount over the front-month gasoil future for the first time since mid-March. Barge prices are also pricing at the steepest discount since Feb. 16.

Diesel Med prices have gained from $416 per ton on July 8, the lowest since May 12, OPIS data show, and are $6.50 per ton higher than the FOB price in northwest Europe.

Brokers signaled fewer than anticipated shipments arriving in the Med from countries east of the Suez Canal for the gain, alongside thinner trade volumes from the U.S., the second-largest supplier of diesel to Europe after Russia.

Although there are 11 cargoes totaling 940,000 tons that loaded at ports at India and Saudi Arabia that may arrive in northwest Europe or the Mediterranean over July, some four have already discharged in Europe. Only two of the remaining cargoes are signaling they will stop in the Mediterranean. A further four vessels are chartered with options and therefore may not end up sailing west of the Suez.

Exports from the U.S., which together with Russia supplied the 28 member countries with 70% of the 45 million tons in ULSD exports in 2015, are also thin in the Med, brokers told OPIS. However five cargoes with 263,000 tons from the U.S. are seen heading for Italian ports over the next three weeks, suggesting that demand is higher than anticipated, possibly because of a refinery outage or to replace cargoes sent to French refineries during last month's strike that shut down production there.

U.S. diesel exports to Europe are tracked at 1.3 million tons this month, while overall volumes are so far at 3.7 million tons.

Imports of jet fuel into Europe in July remain poised to hit a nine-month high even as three cargoes -- all loaded last month from the Reliance Jamnagar refinery in India -- are seen diverting to Canada or Iceland.

Buoyed by higher-than-average exports from South Korea, some 2.3 million metric tons on 37 tankers is tracked arriving in the 28 member countries this month, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

That's the highest monthly import figure since September 2015, when 2.5 million tons was shipped, data from Eurostat, The European Commission's statistics agency shows.

Last month, just over 2 million tons on 38 tankers was tracked arriving in Europe, at the start of the peak summer holiday flying season.

Four cargoes with 395,000 tons are arriving in July from South Korea, while Saudi Arabian volumes are measured at 660,000 tons, with a further 355,000 tons from Kuwait.

Monthly imports from South Korea averaged just over 200,000 tons last year, Eurostat data shows. Trade flows are mostly determined by the arbitrage, or profit, to buy jet fuel in South Korea for shipment and sale to Europe at a profit. Figures compiled by OPIS show the arbitrage has been closed since late June, with most cargoes from South Korea already loaded and on the water to make the month-long voyage to Europe.

Tankers tracked from the United Arab Emirates, normally the biggest supplier, are lower than would be anticipated, at 300,000 tons.

Diverted vessels included the Fortune Victoria, which discharged 60,000 metric tons of jet fuel at Quebec, Canada on July 3, instead of Algeciras, Spain, as first signaled. The vessel loaded in Sikka, India, from the Reliance Jamnagar refinery.

The Torm Estrid, also with 60,000 tons from Sikka, is also scheduled to arrive in Quebec on July 18, while the Navig8 Excellence is arriving in Iceland in nine days.

August volumes imported to Europe are so far tracked at 1.2 million tons on 19 tankers. Five ships with 335,000 tons have options to sail to other destinations besides Europe, including two from South Korea.

The Europe-bound Loukas I has diverted mid-Atlantic, taking its 38,000-ton cargo of diesel to South America, amid plunging prices and a glut of the middle distillate seen arriving this month in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region from competitor suppliers in Saudi Arabia.

The tanker loaded at Marathon's Garyville refinery dock early in July, then departed, and was signalling it would be arriving around the Gibraltar region around two weeks later, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

But on July 13, the ship changed course and is now heading south and for the Atlantic port of Cristobal, where it's expected to make a Panama Canal transit, reflecting how volatile conditions for middle distillates are rapidly shaping trade flows.

Europe imported nearly 45 million tons of ultra-low-sulfur diesel in 2015, and has the world's biggest regional deficit. But this month, two Europe-bound cargoes from the U.S. Gulf have diverted, while a third one considered an alternate as prices over the month have so far fallen 8%.

Delivered ULSD cargoes in northwest Europe have so far averaged $417 per ton this month, down from June's average of $446 per ton, with prices falling at a faster pace than in the U.S. Gulf. There, refined spot prices for Gulf Coast ultra-low-sulfur No. 2 averaged $1.45/gallon in June, with the July average at $1.38, or $432.88 per ton.

Some 760,000 tons on nine tankers is tracked being loaded from Saudi Arabia to make the month-long voyage to northwest Europe that will arrive in July, according to data from brokers, traders and ship satellite-tracking data. Of the nine vessels, two have options that may see them discharge their cargo at a destination east of the Suez Canal, and may not make the voyage west.

That would be the second-highest monthly volumes since February, when more than 800,000 tons was imported, according to data from Eurostat, the European Commission's statistics agency.

Overall volumes of diesel tracked to Europe in July now stand at just over 4 million tons on 100 vessels, with 1.3 million tons from Russia, and 1.2 million tons from the U.S., according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

Tanker STI Alexis has become the eighth Europe-bound vessel in four weeks to ship jet fuel via the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope from the Middle East and Asia.

The Long Range 2 tanker, which loaded the reported 90,000-metric-ton cargo of jet fuel from Saudi Aramco's Jubail refinery on July 14, is now heading south in the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Gulf of Aden and thus a Suez Canal transit.

The voyage around the Cape can take up to 14 to 20 days longer than the conventional month-long route via the Suez Canal through which most middle distillates from Asia, India and the Middle East sail to Europe.

Seven other LR2 tankers are currently sailing around the Cape, a trade flow rarely seen unless the arbitrage or floating storage economics of a contango market, or high stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region make it profitable or necessary

Shell, Total, Vitol, Castleton and Cepsa are among oil companies and traders who have opted to ship jet fuel via the Cape in the past four weeks (see list). Shell has three of the vessels, or 270,000 metric tons on the water, equivalent to about 15% of Europe's average monthly imports.

The spot price for jet fuel in northwest Europe is currently about $35 per ton lower than the October-through-December paper value OPIS calculations suggest. Jet fuel in independent storage in the ARA region is currently at about 5 million bbl, nearly 49% above the five-year average, according to BNP Paribas, citing data from PJK International.

The phenomena of Cape jet shipments was last seen in February and March, with the additional sailing time allowing traders time to find a buyer or storage spot, or take positions in the futures market that allowed them to profit from the higher-priced, later delivery date.

Vessels tracked by the OPIS Tanker Tracker include:

--SKS Darent (90kt, Shell) - Shellhaven in two weeks;

--Torm Marie (90kt, Shell) - Shellhaven in two weeks;

--Zaliv Vostok (80kt, Total);

--SKS Douro (90kt, Vitol) - Rotterdam in 12 days;

Dubai Brilliance (90kt, Castleton) - last signaled Le Havre end July;

--Nord Sakura (40kt, Cepsa);

--Front Panther (90kt, Shell) - Shellhaven in seven days

U.S. exports of diesel to Europe arriving in July are on track to reach a six- month high, adding to the pressure of additional supplies from the Middle East, India and Russia, which are depressing prices and cracks in the region.

Some 1.25 metric tons on 30 tankers is tracked from the U.S. being discharged at ports in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean in July, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker. They're the highest monthly volumes from the U.S. since November 2015, based on data from Eurostat and the tracker.

A further five tankers have already been chartered to ship a further 230,000 tons of ultra-low-sulfur diesel from the U.S. to arrive in August, information from brokers, traders and vessel-tracking data show.

With more than 100 vessels coming this month, tracking suggests the flood of diesel continues unabated, with more than 4.2 million tons coming in July, the fifth consecutive month that levels have topped the 4-million-ton mark.

Europe's diesel imports hit a record 5 million tons in March, 44% higher than the prior-year period. Overall first-quarter figures showed a 39% rise, according to Eurostat, the European Commission's statistics database, even as U.S. imports declined 10% over that period.

Cargoes from Russia and the Baltic are tracked at 1.7 million tons this month, with 760,000 tons coming from Saudi Arabia -- the second-highest on record -- as well as 180,000 tons from India, data shows.

Ultra-low-sulfur diesel cargo prices for northwest Europe this week fell under $400 per ton for the first time since early May, and have dropped 10.5% so far this month, OPIS assessments show. Prices have albeit recovered from a 12-year low of $248.75 per ton on Jan. 20.

There's fresh evidence that traders are taking positions that will see diesel and gasoil held in floating storage in northwest Europe, as a further three large product tankers each load up to 100,000-ton cargoes of the middle distillate at eastern Baltic ports this week.

Oil trader Vitol is loading an ultra-low sulfur diesel cargo on the product tanker SKS Delta today at Ventspils, and another on the Optimus at the Latvian port on Aug. 8, according to information compiled from traders, brokers and satellite tracking data.

Russian trader Litasco also chartered the STI Oxford to load a 100,000-ton cargo of gasoil from Riga on Aug. 4. The grade was not specified.

All cargoes are likely heading for northwest Europe, and possibly the area of Southwold, U.K., where they may join a further two product tankers with cargoes of a similar size in the area that are at anchor and being used for floating storage.

The Alpine Amalia is imminently arriving at Southwold, an offshore area widely used to store crude and refined products on vessels. The tanker loaded a 90,000- ton distillate cargo at the Red Sea port of Yanbu earlier in July. The Vitol- controlled SKS Tagus has had a diesel cargo around the same size for long-term storage there since early April.

Tankers were last seen temporarily storing diesel in northwest Europe from December through February in Southwold and near the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp area as a market contango pushed onshore storage to records amid a global distillate glut that diverted ULSD cargoes to the region.

The market contango is also seeing Europe-bound jet fuel cargoes from the Middle East and Asia sailing around the Cape of Good Hope in past weeks instead of taking a shorter voyage via the Suez Canal. Also a newbuilding suezmax tanker, San Jacinto, is said to be loading a 120,000-ton cargo in the Middle East Gulf in mid-August for shipment for Shell, for shipment to northwest Europe. The Aretea is also being watched off the coast of Malta for the past five days, after a diesel cargo bound for Le Havre, stopped there and hasn't discharged.

Some 2.13 million tons of jet fuel on 36 tankers is tracked arriving in Europe over August as holiday season flying peaks in the region.

Volumes exported from Asia are at 580,000 tons, and comprise around 27% of all imports, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker, while there are also five Indian cargoes totaling 290,000 tons arriving.

Three of the seven Far East cargoes have yet to be discharged and are at anchor at ports outside northwest Europe and the U.K, amid a continuing market contango, a rise in floating storage and difficulties finding shore-based terminals. Four of these took the slower voyage around the Cape of Good Hope, instead of via the shorter route of the Suez Canal.

Traders report onshore independent terminals in France and Germany are booked through to 2017, and inventories are close to records seen in late 2015 and early 2016 in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region.

Vitol appears to have been most active in exploiting market conditions in August, with the oil trader reported as the ship charterer or cargo owner of 485,000 tons. Most cargoes came from South Korea or Singapore.

So far in September they're seen with four cargoes, all of which are loading from the Middle East Gulf. Cargoes arriving next month from Ruwais already eclipse volumes in August (340,000 tons versus 345,000 tons) which may reflect the repair and return of the new RFCC at the expanded refinery that has experienced problems.

September volumes are so far counted at 1.6 million tons on 25 tankers, of which three ships are due to load 245,000 tons with options to discharge at other places outside Europe which may reduce the tally.

There's no let up in Indian cargoes, with six tankers scheduled to ship 350,000 tons of jet fuel to Europe for arrival in September, all of which are loading in the last 10 days of August.

Monthly imports averaged 1.8 million tons in 2015, according to Eurostat data.

Monthly imports of diesel in Europe are on track to exceed four million tons for a seventh consecutive month, as traders bring over shipments from the Middle East at the same time as volumes from the U.S. are poised to reach an 18-month high.

Some 4.1 million metric tons on 95 tankers is so far tracked arriving in the 28 member countries in August, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

The figure includes 500,000 metric tons from Baltic ports of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, which typically export ultra-low sulfur gasoil of Russian origin, as well as a further 1 million tons directly from Russia, Europe's biggest supplier.

Buoying volumes this month are the 1.5 million tons seen being shipped over the Atlantic from the U.S., based on information compiled from traders, brokers and satellite vessel tracking.

That's the highest seen in Tanker Tracker data going back to Jan. 2015. Eurostat trade data, available to May 2016, shows the largest volumes over that time period was 1.4 million tons imported last October.

There's also 550,000 tons on ULSD tracked on tankers loaded in Saudi Arabia's Yanbu and Jubail refineries seen arriving in August. Monthly imports from the kingdom have averaged just under 500,000 tons over the first five months of 2016, according to data from Eurostat, the European Commission's trade database.

September volumes are already tallied at 1.2 million tons on 17 vessels, but six of the 12 tankers are noted to be loading ULSD in Asia or India and have options to ship east or west of the Suez canal and may not end up making the voyage to northwest Europe.

This month has also seen Europe-bound vessels laden with diesel stop off the Moroccan coastline mid-voyage, or sail at slower speeds to delay reaching the region amid reports that shore-based storage is tight.

A Europe-bound tanker laden with jet fuel loaded from India has changed its destination for the second time midvoyage and will now discharge its cargo in Aruba. This is the first diversion seen on this trade route in two months.

The Castleton-controlled FPMC P Glory loaded 65,000 tons of jet fuel at the Vadinar terminal in India on July 22, according to information compiled from traders, brokers and satellite tracking data.

For five days it sailed south on the Indian Ocean, and on July 26 signaled it was heading for Le Havre, arriving in four weeks.

A day later the tanker changed course and sailed east toward Asia for two days, but then reversed direction to resume its former voyage path. The tanker was seen going around the Cape of Good Hope, instead of the shorter route through the Suez Canal, a popular option for Europe-bound jet fuel over the past two months amid a steep market contango.

Over the weekend, the vessel is now signaling its next port will be Aruba, in 18 days, a storage option used for several diverted Europe-bound cargoes from Asia, the Middle East and India over 2016.

Castleton diverted the sister ship FPMC P Eagle with a 90,000-ton jet fuel cargo in June and another in February, sending the Europe-bound cargoes to the U.S. Virgin Islands or Bahamas instead. Both cargoes were loaded from West Coast Indian ports.

Shell and Total have also each diverted a jet cargo to the Caribbean this year.

Four ships are tracked shipping diesel across the Atlantic from northwest Europe or Baltic ports for oil traders BP Shell and Trafigura, amid draws of the middle distillate in independent storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region.

BP chartered two ships (Bright Fortune and Mercer Street) to each load 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low-sulfur diesel around Sept. 6 from northwest Europe for shipment to the U.S., according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

Trafigura is shipping a cargo to Argentina from the Russian Baltic port of Primorsk on the Navig8 Andesine, while Shell has the High Efficiency arriving in Santos, Brazil, in two weeks, after loading at Rotterdam, based on information compiled from brokers. The Trafigura cargo is scheduled to arrive at Campana in 12 days' time.

Similar trans-Atlantic voyages were last seen in June, when tracking data showed traders shipped ULSD on a handful tankers to the U.S. East Coast and Argentina. It's rarely profitable to buy ULSD in Europe for shipment and sale across the Atlantic. However, the front-month ULSD future in Europe is trading about $37/t lower than the NYMEX heating oil contract at around 14:13 London time, while freight costs are around $11 per ton.

The shipments are seen as diesel imports to Europe from main suppliers of Russia, the U.S., and Middle East Gulf and are seen compensating for additional demand amid planned autumn refinery maintenance.

More volumes will be diverted to Europe because of a saturated Asian market and higher runs from three Middle East export refineries, BNP Paribas said in a report on the global diesel sector earlier this month.

Some 4.1 million tons on 99 tankers is tracked arriving in Europe this month, including 1.3 million tons from the U.S. Gulf Coast and 1.3 million tons from Russia, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

Some 490,000 tons is seen arriving from Saudi Arabia in August, and 330,000 tons so far in September, data compiled from traders, brokers and satellite-tracking data shows.

Distillate inventories in the ARA region for the week ending Aug. 28 were 2.2% lower than a month ago, at 23.6 million bbl, BNP Paribas said in a report, citing data from PJK International.

In August and September, more than half of all jet fuel shipped to Europe on the largest Long Range 2 product tankers from Asia, India and the Middle East Gulf is making the voyage via the longer and slower route around the Cape of Good Hope, OPIS analysis shows.

With the northwest Europe jet fuel market in contango, traders are using extra sailing time to arrange storage, sell the cargo or take a position on the futures market with later-priced delivery.

The evolving trend amid cheap bunkers and low freight rates signals a departure from long-established trade flows of the middle distillate to Europe via the Suez Canal. Sailing via the Cape is about 73% longer in nautical miles and adds around 10 days to the voyage.

Of the 14 LR2 tankers tracked importing some 1 million tons of jet fuel from the east of Suez Canal in August, eight of them, with 700,000 aboard, opted to go around the Cape instead, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

For September, there are 11 Europe-bound LR2 tankers coming over east of Suez, with six carrying 520,000 tons going around the Cape, data compiled from brokers, traders and vessel-tracking data shows.

Analysis over the last 12 months shows the last times large tankers laden with jet fuel took the Cape voyage was in August 2015, March and February this year. Of the 158 LR2 voyages tracked in the last 12 months, 31 have gone around the Cape. Of these 31 vessels, 14 have been tracked arriving in August and September this year.

A Castleton-controlled tanker laden with 60,000 tons of jet fuel has diverted to Port Everglades, Fla., midway on its voyage to northwest Europe, from India.

The UACC Falcon was first heading for Le Havre, France, via the Cape of Good Hope, with it AIS signal showing it would arrive around Oct. 20, vessel-tracking data showed.

Now the vessel is scheduled to discharge at Port Everglades in 11 days. It loaded at the West Indian coast port of Sikka on Aug. 31, according to information compiled from brokers and traders.

Castleton regularly ships about two Indian jet fuel cargoes a month from Sikka, most to Europe, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker. But five of the 12 shipments this year tracked have diverted to either storage in the Caribbean or to the U.S. Atlantic Coast.

This is the first tanker laden with jet fuel seen diverting this year to Port Everglades. There is now a state of emergency ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Matthew in south Florida as a Category 4 storm.

Dramatic changes to Europe diesel trade flows are revealed in January-through- August trade data, with imports surging 30% on the same period last year, and shipments from newest supplier Saudi Arabia double levels 12 months ago.

Exports from Russia -- which surpassed the U.S. last year to become the biggest diesel supplier to the 28 member countries -- grew by a third so far this year. However the U.S., after decades of being the leading diesel exporter to Europe, saw volumes shipped across the Atlantic shrink by 2% as refiners there shifted focus to South America.

Overall volumes of ultra-low sulfur diesel shipped to the 28 member countries were at 37.5 million tons in the first eight months of 2016, up from 28 million tons at the same time last year, according to data from Eurostat.

Saudi imports gained 97%, to 4.3 million tons, compared to 2.2 million tons in the prior-year period. After hitting fresh records over three consecutive months in 2016, Russian imports were 32% higher, at 16.8 million tons, data from the European Commission's statistics database show.

Falling oil prices have made it trickier to work U.S.-Europe arbitrage cargoes amid a contango market. At the same time upgraded refineries in Russia and Saudi Arabia have been able to meet European ULSD specifications, further altering established trade flows.

Overall monthly imports have exceeded more than 4 million tons all this year, with a record 5.1 million tons seen in March, data show.

Tanker tracking from September through November indicates that ULSD shipments arriving from Russia and Saudi Arabia continue broadly around the same levels, with nearly 2 million tons alone tracked in September from Russia and Baltic states.

October Russia volumes are already tracked at 1.7 million tons, in line with monthly trade averages.

And although Saudi Arabia's two export refineries last winter had difficulty supplying ULSD to European specifications without additional blending, shipments are tracked at 250,000 tons this month and 555,000 tons next month, according to data compiled from traders, brokers and vessel satellite-tracking data.

Overall import volumes tracked are so far seen at 2.5 million tons on 56 ships in November and 3.1 million tons on 80 tankers in October. Average monthly imports in the January-through-August period, the latest months for which data are available, is 4.6 million tons, according to Eurostat.

European and Japanese buyers may face a bidding war for Asia jet fuel supplies over winter which could quickly boost spot prices, Energy Aspects said.

The London-based energy consultancy said Japanese jet and kerosene stocks were already 15.4% lower than the year-ago period, at 22 million bbl, with further draws expected as winter started. Heating oil imports are likely needed in Japan over the first quarter to keep inventories from getting too low, the consultancy's monthly report on the distillates sector noted.

At the same time, two refineries in Saudi Arabia which supply as much as 25% of Europe's jet fuel imports will be undergoing maintenance as the coldest northeast Asia winter is forecast since 2012. Work is also scheduled for refineries in Kuwait, the third-largest supplier of jet fuel to Europe after Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia.

"This raises the prospect of Japan and Europe both bidding for jet fuel supplies while these exporters are offline," the report said.

"European firms may opt to run down stocks rather than get in a bidding war over jet supplies. Even so, in the event of an Asian cold snap, these factors could boost spot jet prices quickly."

Saudi Arabian jet fuel imports comprised about 20.5% of the 15.7 million tons of jet fuel imported into Europe in the first eight months of this year, according to data from Eurostat, the European Commission's statistics database. Kuwait supplied 12%, data shows.

The two Saudi refineries mentioned by Energy Aspects for maintenance are the 400,000-b/d Yasref plant and the 530,000-b/d Ras Tanura facility.

The global jet fuel surplus is seen shrinking to 270,000 b/d in the first quarter of 2017, from a surplus of 444,000 b/d in the final three months of 2016, according to Energy Aspects. The first-quarter Asia Pacific surplus is forecast at at 282,000 b/d, down from 517,000 b/d this quarter.

Diesel shipments to Europe from Saudi Arabia show little signs of easing over winter, even as turnarounds at some refineries temporarily halt exports and some cargoes need blending to meet specifications in Germany.

The 400,000-b/d Yasref refinery at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, one of about three Middle East facilities supplying Europe with diesel, is undergoing a turnaround, according to London-based consultants, Energy Aspects.

The joint venture Aramco and Sinopec facility has shipped between one and three ultra-low-sulfur diesel cargoes varying in size from 40,000 tons to 90,000 tons each month to countries in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean over the last year, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

"Cold point has been an issue for ex-Yasref cargoes though they are supposed to address this during the current turnaround," Robert Campbell, head of Energy Aspects oil product research said in an emailed response to questions.

He said some Middle East diesel cargoes also did not meet German winter specifications, which complicated trading. But with blending, most cargoes were okay, he added.

The last Yasref ULSD cargo was tracked leaving Yanbu port on on Nov. 2, discharging at Algeciras for Cepsa.

But diesel shipments loading at another Saudi Arabian refinery at Jubail this month are already tracked higher than monthly volumes seen last winter.

Four cargoes, all from the Sasref refinery, are currently on the water, with a total of 420,000 tons heading for Europe to arrive in December, data compiled from brokers, traders and vessel-tracking satellite data show.

That's just below the monthly average of 520,000 tons seen for ULSD imports to the 28 member countries of the EU from Saudi Arabia over the first eight months of this year, according to Eurostat trade data. Trade data show Saudi-Europe ULSD imports at 330,000 tons in November and 390,000 tons in December, falling to 230,000 tons by January.

Middle East refinery turnarounds in November are estimated at 521,000 b/d, with 512,000 b/d offline in December. The region's overall fourth-quarter global crude runs are forecast at 7.2 million b/d, out of a global total of 79.6 million, according to Energy Aspects.

Jet fuel imports to Europe declined over the third quarter, even with steady demand growth, as domestic refineries in key countries including the Netherlands and Germany produced record-breaking monthly volumes over the July-through- September period.

Third-quarter imports slumped by 7% compared to the year-ago period, to 6.6 million tons, according to data from Eurostat, the European Commission's statistics database.

Over the first half of the year, imports had shown growth of 15%, led by new supplies from the new Ruwais export refinery in the United Arab Emirates.

The import slump of 7% compares to a third-quarter demand gain of 3% for Europe's top six countries that consume jet fuel, based on data compiled from the Joint Organisation Data Initiative (JODI).

However, it appears the demand growth is being met locally. The Netherlands' refinery output was the highest in records going back to 2002, at 778,000 tons in September. Germany's monthly output by refineries in August was also a record 507,000 metric tons. July output for French refineries was the highest since July 2013, JODI data shows, while Italian refineries produced the most jet fuel since August 2014 in September.

However, jet fuel barge cracks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region, as calculated by OPIS, averaged $7.74/bbl over the third quarter. That is well below the $11.41/bbl average seen in the July-through-September period in 2015. ARA jet barge prices averaged $499.74/t in the third quarter of 2015 and $433.12/t in this year's comparable period.

Oil company Shell is seen diverting as many as three shipments exceeding 250,000 tons of low-sulfur diesel or gasoil across the Atlantic to arrive on the U.S. East Coast over the next three weeks, as colder weather opens up potential for rare, reverse-arbitrage trades.

The Shell-controlled Gulf Valour loaded 80,000 tons of gasoil or ultra-low- sulfur diesel at the Ruwais refinery on Nov. 7, and signaled Rotterdam as the next destination, according to the OPIS Tanker Tracker.

But en route to northwest Europe, the tanker anchored off Malta for 10 days, before resuming the voyage to Gibraltar, and is now signaling New York as its next destination on Dec. 8.

Shell diverted a similar Ruwais-northwest Europe shipment last February, as a cold snap boosted demand in New York for low-sulfur heating oil amid concerns that the United Arab Emirates refinery couldn't meet Europe winter-grade specifications for ULSD.

Another Shell-controlled tanker, Luctor, is now tracked arriving in New York on Dec. 2, after loading a gasoil cargo (grade unspecified) at Sines on Nov. 20, according to information compiled from brokers, traders and vessel-tracking data.

The oil major is also said to be chartering the Energy Pride to load a 40,000- ton cargo at the Russian Baltic port of Primorsk on Dec. 1 to make the two-week trans-Atlantic voyage. Primorsk-origin diesel cargoes normally ship to northwest Europe.

The spread between front-month low-sulfur gasoil futures trading in London versus the NYMEX heating oil contract was now around $37 per ton at 3:30 p.m. London time -- levels that suggest the arbitrage is opening.

Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM) decided to cancel operating of PDVSA tankers fleet because of unpaid crews wages and lack of necessary crews. PDVSA’s maritime arm, PDV Marina, lacks at least 160 seamen, 16 positions per ship on average, including such positions as Captain, 2 Officers, Chief Engineer, 2 Engineers, Cook, ABs.
List of tankers in critical situation, lacking necessary personnel:
6 Lakemax 100,000-dwt tankers: NEREO (IMO 9038880), PROTEO (IMO 9038830), ZEUS (IMO 9038828), EOS (IMO 9038878), HERO (IMO 9038892), anchored waiting for a dock in Amuay and Cardón, and TESEO (IMO 9038866) that is operating.
4 Suezmax 160,000-dwt tankers: RIO CARONI (IMO 9586722), RIO APURE (IMO 9589748), RIO ORINOCO (IMO 9586734), RIO ARAUCA (IMO 9589750), anchored in Portugal as retained.
Several other units are also on the list of fleet to be returned to PDVSA’s maritime arm, PDV Marina:
4 Aframax tankers: ARITA (IMO 9503574), ICARO (IMO 9038842), PARNASO (IMO 9038854).
VLCC 320,000-dwt tankers: CARABOBO (IMO 9623257), JUNIN (IMO 9623269), BOYACA (IMO 9590058), AYACUCHO (IMO 9590008).
Some tankers are already detained or still operating globally, some waiting in Venezuela waters.
FleetMon Vessel Risk Rating: https://www.fleetmon.com/services/vessel-risk-rating/